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Tap-to-earn market sector analysis, a deep dive, how successful have they been?; a deep dive

Tap-to-earn market sector analysis, a deep dive, how successful have they been?; a deep dive


Tap-to-earn crypto segment has arguably been the Gamefi moment of 2024. Blockchain gaming has undergone evolution and play-to-earn has arguably become the most successful model for web3. A variation of play-to-earn is tap-to-earn or clicker games. Hamster Kombat amassed over 300 million users in just a few months while Notcoin market cap peaked at over $3 billion. These two have become the go-to example of the might and strength of telegram tap-to-earn clicker games.

Clicker games have garnered millions of users looking to earn money by simply tapping their phones and doing other simple tasks. Some of the most famous clicker games such as Notcoin, Hamster Kombat, and Tapswap had a combined user base of over 400 million users at their peak. However, the sector has since cooled down with the last meaningful clicker game, Hamster Kombat Airdrop coming as a disappointment to many users. Now that the market has cooled down, it is time to take a look at how the sector has performed, its strengths, failures and what the future looks like for the clicker gamefi sector.

Recent data shows there are over 3.2 billion gamers globally. Asia leads the way with 1.48 billion gamers, more than Europe, North America and Latin America combined.

Source; Statista, Dfcint.

The above is an indication that blockchain gaming is just starting and some of these 3.2 billion users will be in the crypto.

How tap-to-earn works

Tap-to-earn games work in such a manner that players tap or click on a screen inside a game. The clicks build up points and there can be additional tasks such as watching a video, joining a community, etc. The aim is to do so repetitively every day over a period of time. The reward is usually native tokens which mostly happen as an airdrop at the end of the project.

Data from coinmarketcap shows the total market capitalization of the tap-to-earn industry stands at around $ 1.1 billion as at 4th November 2024.

Source: coinmarketcap

Now let’s take a look at some of the most successful tap-to-earn games

Notcoin

Notcoin launched in January 2024 after being in beta in Q4 of 2023. It mainstreamed use of telegram bots as games. It was not the first tap-to-earn telegram bot game, but it could be argued that it was successful at launch. Notcoin had 40 million users as at June 2024. According to Trading View data, Notcoin surged 300% towards the end of May and was the top 5 most traded crypto globally for a short period in June 2, 2024. Currently, Notcoin sits at $594 million market cap with around $80M 24 hour trading volume.

Hamster Kombat

Hamster Kombat was keen to follow the success of Notcoin and promised to be the biggest project in crypto. At its peak, it boasted over 300 million players in July 2024. After the airdrop, the current user base is just around 40M, almost an 85% drop. Back in August, reports came out that internal tensions and delayed airdrop threatened Hamster Kombat’s success. The token airdrop was on September 26 and recorded highs of $0.00999 and today 6th November the token is hovering at around $0.002414 a 76% drop.

Hamster Kombat monthly users: source: Protos.

Hamster team had lofty promises of revolutionizing the telegram gaming world. However, constant airdrop delays, tedious gameplay, and not-well-thought-out token mechanics spelled doom for Hamster Kombat. Since the airdrop, the number of subscribers on the Hamster Kombat telegram announcement channel has dropped to 53 million, from a high of over 100M 2 months ago. The hamster team was aware the airdrop was not received as they expected. They planned to launch season 2 ‘soon’ but that has not rekindled the interest yet.

Mario on X captures the sentiments perfectly

https://x.com/RoundtableSpace/status/1853650186054066360

Tapswap

Tapswap is a clicker game similar to Notcoin involving the tap-to-earn mechanism. Players collect coins when they complete tasks. Similarly to Hamster Kombat, players need to accumulate the maximum number of coins mining coins either manually or via in-game bot and boosts. By mid-June 2024, the game had 50 million users.

The Tapswap token generation event (TGE) has not taken place yet. Current updates from the community on telegram show the much-anticipated airdrop is coming soon. To prepare, the company has started partnerships with exchanges such as Binance and Bybit. Given how Hamster TGE was negatively received by the community, Tapswap is seeking to have a better event that will satisfy most of the community.

Advantages/ characteristics of tap-to-earn

  • Easy to start and play; users usually only need to have the telegram messaging app in order to play. Downloading additional apps is not required. This makes the onboarding process straightforward
  • Blends gaming and earning.
  • Expands crypto usage and awareness to already existing 1 billion telegram users.

The value proposition for tap-to-earn games can be summarized as follows

“When it comes to gaming, the blockchain shouldn’t be the leading sales pitch but the invisible technology that enables players to truly own their in-game assets and move them at will” – Mario Nawfal, Founder and Investor

This is exactly the problem tap-to-earn games have been able to solve. Most of blockchain applications such as NFTs, trading, and defi involve complex activities that newbies have to navigate. Tap-to-earn does not involve that as it is simple to get started.

Sustainability challenges

However, despite the simplicity of clicker games, there is lingering skepticism about their long-term sustainability. We have seen most of the hype ends with TGE with nothing to offer beyond the airdrop.

One of the leading games, Tapswap is seeking to change this narrative by a ‘win-win monetization’ model. Through this model, a portion of players’ earnings will be retained in the Tapswap platform so that both the players and the project have a profit-sharing agreement. With this model, rather than a single payout that is usually the case, the game incentivizes long-term player payouts and hopefully retention.

The Future Outlook

Given the mixed fortunes of tap-to-earn telegram games, the main question in the minds of users and investors is how sustainable will it be?

TON blockchain founder, where most of the telegram games have been launched, says people should look at tap-to-earn games as “an effective way to introduce the TON blockchain to users”. He sees the projects more as a lunch strategy rather than a whole crypto sector but as a go-to-market strategy. If this is the case, then tap-to-earn could be adopted by many projects to generate initial buzz and then seek a more long term strategy for sustainability. However, users are likely to see through this and other projects might not have as much traction as predecessors.

Other critics have outlined that tap-to-earn games are too simplistic and not stimulating enough for long-term engagement. While this sentiment is true, the predecessors of tap-to-earn was play-to-earn games with Axie Infinity being the prime example. Even though games such as Axie infinity were more engaging, they have not managed to gain momentum over the long run and capture sizeable growth in the gaming sector. Games like Axie Infinity require users to make a real monetary investment at the beginning but the new telegram games do not. In addition, since telegram games are mostly casual games with low skill level, they are easy to onboard users. Therefore, it is true that tap-to-earn has improved play-to-earn games in terms of ease of use and user acquisition. The last piece of the puzzle is long-term engagement and sustainability.

Current projects such as Hamster Kombat have resulted to re-launching the game with a new mining phase while Notcoin is pivoting towards being a Launchpad hub for other similar projects.

The future of tap-to-earn seems to be; use of clicker games to attract new users and then launch a more sustainable project in the long run. Therefore web3 game developers should take lessons from the evolution of web3 gaming from play-to-earn to the current tap-to-earn. Use these lessons to build more robust gameplays that hook the users on the first instant while also developing game dynamics that offer more immersive experiences for longer-term user engagement. Instead of pegging everything to a future successful airdrop to retain players, offer a seismic shift in aligning player incentives to long-term sustainability. 



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